The present invention relates to a method and system for the formation of an electronic network-based capital marketplace that facilitates efficient capitalization and liquidation of enterprises by market participants through utilization of enterprise search-and-sort and associated decision support systems. The present invention also relates to an integrated method and system for efficient electronic monitoring of enterprise performance.
Through its enabling role in the capitalization of new and emerging enterprises, the market for private equity and debt capital constitutes an essential pillar of modern capitalism. A lack of integrated process automation and considerable market fragmentation, however, constrain investors' ability to collectively create an efficient market for private capital. A leading study from Harvard University found that “efficient markets do not exist for allocating risk capital to early-stage technology ventures and that serious inadequacies exist in information available to both entrepreneurs and investors.” The prevalence of such inefficiencies in a significant capital market like private equity imposes limitations on investors and entrepreneurs alike, but most importantly, these inefficiencies fundamentally limit the efficient, free-market premise of modern capitalism.
Current investor “deal-flow” (i.e., enterprise identification and screening) practices rely largely on fragmented networks of non-stakeholders for prospect identification, and subsequently on manually intensive screening processes for initial qualification of these enterprise prospects (in lieu of the due diligence process). Considerable inherent market fragmentation inhibits efficient matching of enterprise agent and investor agent groups, and manual screening processes employed by investor agents limit their potential rate of enterprise exposure. In addition, these referral networks restrict the velocity of information flow, and hence inhibit the ultimate rate at which capitalization and liquidation decisions are made. For entrepreneurs, poor availability and high costs of capital associated with current practices can restrict their ability to survive and grow. The substantial time and attention demands of current practices distract entrepreneurs from their critical operational responsibilities. For other enterprise agents seeking an enterprise liquidity event, conventional market practices are in aggregate, ineffective at producing adequate marketplace liquidity.
Once capitalized, the performance of young enterprises is typically monitored by investors to minimize the probability of failure and maximize the investors' return on capital. However, one-third of young enterprises typical fail within three years of capitalization, indicating that investors have in general not implemented an effective systematic method for adequately monitoring the performance of their portfolio enterprises. Studies have determined that around 50% of business failures could have been avoided if related indications of incipient failure had been detected early enough, thereby identifying the need for a systematic method of enterprise performance monitoring and emerging failure detection.
Since the Internet presents an effective communication platform for the sharing of information such as enterprise business plans with potential investor agents, several online entities have established rudimentary network-based platforms for enterprise agents to submit and share their business plans with member investor agents. None of these intermediates, however, have systematically employed process automation that advances and improves the process beyond conventional practices. The only distinguishing feature of these processes beyond conventional investor deal-flow practices is that they have utilized the Internet as a central location for communication between both parties. Since they have failed to introduce procedures and technologies that engender a more efficient process, the industry has been incapable of facilitating an efficient marketplace for private capital.
The risk (i.e., probabilistic uncertainty) associated with the expected fiscal performance of an enterprise asset is comprised of both systematic (economy-based and market-based) risk and unsystematic (firm-based and industry-based) risk. These risk categories are functions of various endogenous (e.g., cash flow management) and exogenous (e.g., interest rates) factors inherent to the enterprise. Enterprises in specific industry sectors exhibit sufficiently similar risk profiles such that specific risk factors are largely consistent in these near-homogenous cross-sections of the enterprise domain. Empirically, studies have determined that certain identifiable enterprise attributes of endogenous and exogenous form exhibit a statistically significant correlation with enterprise risk and can be used as a knowledge reference to compute and predict the risk inherent to a specific enterprise.
Over the years, academic researchers have developed numerous techniques for enterprise failure prediction, including: classical cross-section statistical methods, machine learning decisions trees, neural networks, fuzzy rules-based classification model, multi-logic model, cumulative sum model, dynamic event history analysis, catastrophe theory and chaos theory model, multidimensional scaling, linear goal programming, multi-criteria decision aid approach, rough set analysis, expert systems, and self-organizing maps. Of all these methods, the majority of peer review studies find that conventional multivariate statistical techniques and neural network techniques generally perform best. However, several investigations have found that the performance of neural network techniques is subject to “over-fitting” that may result in an overstated accuracy for the neural network in comparison to the other techniques.
Some techniques for valuing an enterprise have been described in a number of patent applications, including the disclosures of U.S. Pat. Application Publication Nos. 2002/0174081 to Charbonneau et al. and 2004/0024674 and 2004/0128174 to Feldman. While these techniques are asserted to be applicable to private enterprises, they are devoid of any technique for validation and reconciliation of the input consisting of enterprise attributes, which often can be erroneous due to subjective and biased sources of origination (i.e., entrepreneurs seeking capital). It is well accepted within the relevant arts that the current value of an asset is a function of the asset's expected generation of future free cash flows, each of which is discounted at a rate of risk (i.e., cost of capital). Neither valuation technique is capable of augmenting projected perpetual free cash flows by the statistically computed unique endogenous and exogenous risk profile of an enterprise to compute the risk-adjusted valuation of an enterprise. Specifically, the disclosure of U.S. Patent Application Publication No. 2002/0174081 requires comparable metrics of current enterprises in order to train its neural network and determine a current enterprise valuation, a method which is highly sensitive to market deviations from efficient asset pricing as experienced in the excessive speculation in the late 1990s.
Some techniques for quantifying the risk of an enterprise have been described in a number of patent applications, including the disclosures of U.S. Patent Application Publication Nos. 2004/0044617 to Lu, 2004/0044505 to Horwitz, and 2002/0147676 to Karmali. In general, these techniques restrict their consideration of enterprise risk to a finite group a factors that constitute symptomatic indications of enterprise risk. Their inadequacy results from an inability to incorporate a dynamic collection of endogenous and exogenous parameters that represent root causes of enterprise risk. Specifically, U.S. Patent Application Publication Nos. 2004/0044617 and 2002/0147676 do not fully automate or disclose their process of risk quantification and require the user to input subjective parameters that serve as reference values in the quantification of risk. Their primary relative inadequacy lies in their lack of a systematic method for dynamically incorporating new and evolving statistical reference information that correlates endogenous and exogenous enterprise-related attributes with dependent parameters representing enterprise risk.
Some techniques for matching entrepreneurs and investors have been described in a number of patents applications, including U.S. Patent Application Publication Nos. 2002/0138385 to Milam and 2002/0087450, 2002/0087446, 2003/0101115, and 2002/0087506 to Reddy. A majority of the investors to which these techniques are targeted generally employ complex and intuitive rule-based methods in their screening and ranking of enterprise investment prospects. While the techniques embodied in the referenced prior art allow for rudimentary criteria-based matching of investors and entrepreneurs, they do not provide the systematic functionality necessary to conform automated methods to existing practices in such a way that engenders an efficient process, and hence do not provide an efficient market for private enterprise capitalization. For example, none of the prior art enables investors with high degrees of freedom in enterprise search criterion or the capability to rank enterprise matches through a system that is capable of incorporating specific investor preferences in a computation of a multi-factor enterprise scoring value.
Individually, techniques have been described for enterprise valuation, enterprise risk assessment, and Internet-based enterprise agent and investor agent matching. No prior art techniques have been described that provide an integrated system for aggregating enterprise risk and valuation analysis, enterprise agent and investor agent matching, and enterprise monitoring in a construct that is capable of creating an efficient marketplace. Such a system and method would be highly desirable by market participants and effective at improving productivity and liquidity within an industry that controls close to $1 trillion in capital.